Are Nottingham Forest dark horses this season?

When Nottingham Forest finished the season last May, following Chris Wood's two goals in the opening 20 minutes of their match against Burnley, no one would have imagined that by January 6, in their game against Wolves, they would be in the top four. They spent New Year's Day in second place in the Premier League, trailing only league leaders Liverpool, under their new manager, Arne Slot.

Nuno and his coaching team have transformed Forest over the past year, turning them from a team that is hard to beat into one of the best counter-attacking sides in the league. They are led by 33-year-old Chris Wood, who scored 11 goals in the Premier League this season and 15 goals last season since joining the Reds from Newcastle permanently following a loan move in Forest opening season back in the Premier League But what accounts for their success?

Nuno is willing to let his team sit back and allow the opposition to have possession. Forest has one of the lowest average possession rates in the Premier League, just over 30% per game. Only Everton has a lower possession statistic than Nottingham Forest.

Forest has been known for poor transfer decisions, having signed 30 players in their first season back in the Premier League. However, this season has a different feel in terms of both incoming and outgoing transfers. Forest signed 11 players during the summer, spending a total of £105 million while managing to sell 18 players, which brought in approximately £86 million.

Three notable sales include Moussa Niakhate and Orel Mangala, who were both sold to French side Olympique Lyon for a combined total of £54 million, alongside Vlachodimos, who was sold to Newcastle for £23 million. These transfers have significantly improved Forest's financial situation, especially after a challenging previous season that resulted in a points deduction alongside Everton.

On the incoming side, Elliott Anderson was brought in from Newcastle for a rumoured £40 million. He has had an impact by playing 19 games for the Reds, providing five assists while taking on a deeper midfield role behind Morgan Gibbs-White. Providing the key balance between attack and defence. 

Forest also strengthened their defence by acquiring 6'5" centre-back Nikola Milenkovic from Fiorentina for £15 million and Morato from Benfica for 18 million who in the 11 games he has played while on the pitch has only conceded one goal in the 3-0 loss to Man City at the start of December. Many consider Milenkovic one of the standout signings of the summer window. He has developed a strong partnership with young player Murillo (21), and together they form one of the best defensive pairings in the Premier League, according to the stats behind Arsenal and league leaders Liverpool.

Currently, Forest boasts the second-best defence in the league, with eight clean sheets, placing them joint top with Liverpool. While they struggled with set-piece goals last season and conceded the most in the division, Murillo, Milenkovic, and Morato have managed to limit those to just one goal conceded at home against Newcastle in November.

Before their 3-0 loss to Arsenal in November, Nottingham Forest and Liverpool were the only two teams in the entire English football league that had not lost an away match. Forest achieved impressive results, including a win at Liverpool, draws at Chelsea and Brighton, and victories over Southampton and their rivals Leicester City.

Since November 21, Forest has been in excellent form, currently on a streak of five consecutive wins and recording 5 wins out of 6 matches in December.

The Reds are positioned third in the league, six points ahead of sixth-placed Manchester City, and after 19 games they have accumulated 37 points, averaging 1.85 points per game. If they maintain this performance throughout the second half of the season, they will finish with an average of 74 points, a total that would likely secure a top-four finish and qualification for Champions League football.